Warrnambool growth plan approved for 4,500 homes and a new town centre

A plan enabling about 4,500 homes on the eastern edge of Warrnambool has been approved, setting the framework for one of the largest expansions in the regional Victorian city’s history.

Victorian Planning Minister Sonya Kilkenny approved the East of Aberline Precinct Structure Plan and its associated development contributions plan on Friday. The state government says the precinct will also support more than 800 jobs.

The 407-hectare area is expected to accommodate up to 15,000 people, which Warrnambool City Council says would be comparable to adding a community the size of Colac to the city.

The precinct plan allocates land for housing, a town centre, schools, parks, sporting facilities, walking and cycling connections and community infrastructure. Environmentally important areas including Francis Tozer Reserve and Russells Creek are to be protected.

Council said the development contributions plan establishes how developers will help pay for transport, drainage and community infrastructure needed as the precinct grows.

Approval starts a long delivery process

The planning decision creates capacity for housing but does not mean 4,500 dwellings are about to reach the market at once.

Warrnambool City Council expects development to occur progressively over 20 to 30 years, depending on landowner decisions and market demand. The Victorian government told the ABC that construction was expected to begin in about a year, with the wider project taking between 15 and 25 years.

Future subdivisions and building proposals will still require the relevant approvals, while roads, drainage, utilities, schools and community facilities will need to be delivered in step with the new homes.

Council will act as the responsible authority for future planning permit applications within the precinct.

The staging will be important for the local property market. A large theoretical supply pipeline offers little immediate assistance if serviced lots, builders and completed homes arrive slowly. Releasing too much land without infrastructure can also leave early residents with long trips to shops, schools and services.

Housing diversity will matter

Warrnambool has a population of about 36,000 and has experienced sustained housing pressure. The council put the city’s rental vacancy rate at 0.8 per cent in 2026, indicating very limited choice for tenants.

Mayor Ben Blain said the new precinct was intended to provide more varied housing, including one- and two-bedroom dwellings. That mix will be important because a large greenfield development made up mainly of detached family homes would not meet every local need.

Smaller homes can serve first-home buyers, older residents seeking to downsize, key workers and smaller households. Their delivery will still depend on lot sizes, construction viability and whether developers see sufficient demand.

The new precinct will also add a significant amount of competition between projects over time. Existing-home sellers should not expect an immediate effect, but buyers may eventually gain more choice as new stages are released.

For off-the-plan and land buyers, the practical details will be stage-specific. Contract timing, sunset clauses, infrastructure completion, site costs, design requirements and the availability of builders may matter as much as the overall precinct plan.

The approval gives Warrnambool a long-term direction for growth. The next test is whether housing and supporting infrastructure are delivered together at a pace that responds to the city’s existing shortage.

What it means for you

• Buyers should monitor actual land releases and construction stages rather than treating all 4,500 planned homes as current supply.
• Renters are unlikely to see rapid relief because delivery will occur over decades.
• New-build purchasers should investigate infrastructure timing, site costs and contract conditions for each stage.
• Existing owners may benefit from better local services, but should also expect sustained development and construction as the precinct expands.