Population growth slows to 1.4% as housing demand shifts between states

Australia’s population growth slowed to 1.4 per cent in the year to March 2026, but the national figure masks substantial differences in the housing demand facing each state.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said the population reached 27,921,150 at 31 March after increasing by 392,700 people over 12 months. Net overseas migration contributed 292,100 people and natural increase, the difference between births and deaths, contributed 100,600.

Population growth is not a direct measure of the number of homes required. New residents may join an existing household, live in student or supported accommodation, or leave Australia before establishing a permanent home. Nevertheless, the data is an important indicator of where additional rental and purchasing demand may emerge.

Western Australia remains the fastest-growing state

Western Australia recorded the strongest annual population growth rate at 2.1 per cent, adding 64,200 residents. Victoria and Queensland both grew by 1.6 per cent, although their larger populations meant they added more people: 109,500 in Victoria and 90,100 in Queensland.

New South Wales remained Australia’s most populous state, reaching about 8.67 million people. Its population increased by 97,000, or 1.1 per cent.

Tasmania had the slowest growth rate at 0.6 per cent, adding about 3,400 residents. South Australia grew by 1 per cent, the Australian Capital Territory by 1.3 per cent and the Northern Territory by 1.5 per cent.

For buyers and renters, the state growth rates provide useful context but should not be treated as suburb-level forecasts. Housing pressure depends on where within a state people settle and whether local construction, vacancies and infrastructure keep pace.

Interstate moves redistribute demand

The ABS figures show New South Wales had a net interstate migration loss of 20,818 people over the year. Queensland gained 14,718 people from other states and territories, while Western Australia gained 10,314.

Victoria’s interstate result was close to balanced, with a net gain of 82 people. South Australia, Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the ACT recorded net interstate losses.

These movements can affect different sections of the housing market. People leaving a capital city do not necessarily release a home for sale, particularly if they retain it as an investment. Likewise, interstate arrivals may rent before purchasing, placing the first pressure on vacancy rates rather than sale prices.

The figures also suggest demand is not simply moving north. Western Australia attracted residents from both overseas and interstate while recording the country’s fastest percentage growth, reinforcing the need to watch Perth and regional WA supply closely.

Overseas migration remains the main source of growth

Net overseas migration was the largest contributor to population change in every state and territory. NSW received 84,573 net overseas migrants and Victoria received 81,732, compared with 55,217 in Queensland and 41,531 in Western Australia.

Nationally, overseas migration arrivals declined by 4 per cent from the previous year to 557,500. Departures also declined, leaving net overseas migration at 292,100.

The annual population growth rate may have eased, but an increase of nearly 393,000 people still represents continuing demand for accommodation. Where dwelling completions lag household formation, the effect is likely to be felt through greater competition for established homes and rentals.

What it means for you

• Buyers and renters in WA should expect population growth to remain an important source of demand.
• NSW is still adding residents despite losing people to other states, because overseas migration and natural increase more than offset the interstate loss.
• Interstate migration can affect rental demand before it appears in sales activity.
• Local listings, vacancies and construction pipelines matter more than the national growth rate when assessing a suburb.