NSW Coalition puts 12,000 homes at the centre of Long Bay jail plan

The NSW Coalition has promised to pursue more than 12,000 homes at the Long Bay correctional precinct if it wins the March 2027 state election, putting a major piece of government-owned land at the centre of Sydney’s housing debate.

Under the policy announced on Wednesday, a Long Bay Delivery Authority would be established within the first 100 days of a Coalition government. It would coordinate master planning, infrastructure, private-sector participation and the relocation of correctional facilities.

The opposition said 30 per cent of the proposed homes would be social and affordable housing. Applied to a 12,000-home development, that commitment would represent about 3,600 dwellings, although the eventual number and tenure mix would depend on a detailed plan proceeding.

This is not an approved redevelopment, rezoning or construction program. It is an election commitment that would require extensive planning and the relocation of an operational prison complex before most housing could be delivered.

A large site close to central Sydney

Corrective Services NSW describes Long Bay Correctional Complex at Malabar as being about 14 kilometres south of the Sydney CBD. The Coalition’s broader precinct concept covers about 50 hectares, including adjoining government land and social housing.

The opposition first announced in September 2025 that it wanted to repurpose the site. Wednesday’s policy added a housing target and proposed a dedicated authority to drive the project.

A delivery authority can bring planning, land, infrastructure and government agencies under a single body. This model can be useful on complex public sites where decisions by transport, housing, health, corrections and planning agencies must be aligned.

However, creating an authority does not remove the physical and financial constraints. A precinct of more than 12,000 homes would need substantial transport capacity, utilities, schools, open space and community facilities. The announcement said the authority would investigate transport options, but it did not commit to a particular project or delivery date.

The prison relocation is the first hurdle

Long Bay is not vacant land. It remains an operating correctional complex with specialised facilities and services. The policy says the proposed authority would work with Corrective Services to coordinate relocation to regional and metropolitan centres, including Goulburn.

The announcement did not provide a cost, timetable or final destination for all prison functions. Those details matter because housing delivery could not be separated from maintaining correctional capacity, secure transport and access to specialist health services.

The earlier 2025 proposal said the correctional centre would remain operational until replacement capacity was ready. That suggests any redevelopment would be staged over an extended period rather than producing thousands of homes quickly.

Heritage considerations may also influence how much of the precinct could be cleared, retained or adapted. Detailed environmental, contamination, traffic and infrastructure studies would be expected before a rezoning of this scale.

What 30 per cent affordable and social housing could mean

The opposition says the 30 per cent component would help young families and essential workers remain in the eastern suburbs. The policy does not yet specify how that share would be divided between social housing and discounted affordable rentals, who would own the homes or how long affordability conditions would apply.

Those settings can substantially change the public benefit. Permanently retained community housing provides a different outcome from privately owned apartments offered at discounted rent for a limited period.

The remaining homes would presumably include market housing delivered with private-sector involvement. A major release of new apartments could broaden buyer choice in an area with high entry prices, but its eventual effect would depend on dwelling sizes, construction costs and the timing of sales.

No buyer can register for or purchase a home under the proposal at this stage. Even if the Coalition wins government and establishes the authority, master planning, rezoning and infrastructure decisions would come first.

What it means for you

• The 12,000-home figure is an election commitment, not an approved housing pipeline.
• About 3,600 homes would be social or affordable if the promised 30 per cent share were delivered in full.
• Transport funding and the relocation of correctional services are major unresolved issues.
• Buyers and renters should not expect homes from the precinct in the near term.