Auction clearance rate falls to 10-week low as Sydney carries grand final weekend

Australia’s preliminary capital-city auction clearance rate fell to a 10-week low over the weekend, adding to evidence that buyers remain cautious even as the spring selling season advances.

Figures attributed to Cotality by MacroBusiness put the combined-capital preliminary clearance rate at 50.3 per cent, down from 54 per cent a week earlier. There were 1,428 auctions, 22.4 per cent fewer than the previous week and 17.7 per cent below the corresponding weekend last year.

The national volume requires some qualification because Melbourne’s market was heavily disrupted by Saturday’s AFL grand final. Even so, the softer clearance rates in both Sydney and Melbourne suggest the result cannot be explained by the football calendar alone.

Preliminary figures are based on the results available soon after auctions take place and are commonly revised lower as more unsuccessful outcomes are collected. The previous week’s early rate of 54 per cent ultimately became a final clearance rate of 49.1 per cent, according to Cotality.

Sydney becomes the busiest auction market

Sydney hosted 790 auctions, up 39 per cent from the previous week and the city’s largest total since late May. However, activity remained 32 per cent below the same period last year.

The city’s preliminary clearance rate fell to 53.6 per cent, its weakest early result in eight weeks. That combination — substantially more properties offered but a lower proportion producing a sale — points to greater choice for buyers and more competition between vendors.

A clearance rate in the low-to-mid 50s does not mean every neighbourhood or property type is weak. Well-located homes with realistic guides may still draw several bidders. But buyers are less likely to face the broad, market-wide urgency associated with clearance rates comfortably above 60 or 70 per cent.

For sellers, Sydney’s large auction program provided a clearer reading than Melbourne’s holiday-affected result. It suggests that simply bringing more stock to market will not guarantee a strong campaign when borrowing capacity and confidence are constrained.

Melbourne activity drops sharply

Melbourne held 286 auctions, 69 per cent fewer than a week earlier as many vendors avoided grand final weekend. That was nevertheless 28 per cent more than during last year’s equivalent football weekend.

Its preliminary clearance rate dropped from 56.3 per cent to 48.8 per cent, the city’s weakest preliminary result since the first week of September 2021.

The limited and unusually timed auction pool means the result should not be treated as a clean measure of the entire Melbourne market. Some vendors may have brought properties forward or delayed their campaigns, changing the mix of homes offered during the week.

However, fewer than half of reported auctions producing a sale is still a warning for vendors whose reserves or price expectations are based on older comparable sales.

Brisbane’s preliminary clearance rate improved by 5.1 percentage points to 42.6 per cent. It has nevertheless remained below 50 per cent in 18 of the past 19 weeks, according to the weekend report. Brisbane is a smaller auction market than Sydney or Melbourne, so private-treaty conditions remain important when assessing local demand.

Passed-in homes can create a second opportunity

Cotality’s final figures for the previous week showed that passed-in properties accounted for almost 70 per cent of unsuccessful capital-city auction results. The research group said this could indicate that buyers and sellers were separated on price.

That gap creates opportunities after the auction, but it does not automatically produce a bargain. Buyers still need recent comparable sales, a firm budget and a clear view of the property’s condition. The highest bidder may also receive the first chance to negotiate with the vendor.

Sellers should use current competing listings and buyer feedback when setting a reserve. A campaign can attract inspections and registrations yet still fail if the reserve assumes demand that is no longer present.

What it means for you

• Buyers may have more negotiating room, particularly where a property passes in and the vendor needs a timely sale.
• Sellers should distinguish Melbourne’s grand final disruption from the broader weakness also visible in Sydney’s larger auction pool.
• Preliminary clearance rates can be revised lower, so wait for final data before drawing firm conclusions about a weekend.
• Local comparable sales and bidder depth remain more useful than the national headline when pricing an individual home.