NSW data shows renters ended 85 per cent of surveyed tenancies

Renters, rather than landlords, initiated about 85 per cent of the tenancy endings captured by NSW’s first mandatory End of Tenancy Survey, according to results released by the state government on Thursday.

The survey collected more than 275,000 responses from landlords and agents, representing about 90 per cent of bonds refunded during the reporting period. It replaces an optional survey that attracted too few responses to provide a reliable picture of why tenancies ended.

The dataset was introduced alongside the NSW ban on no-grounds evictions, which took effect in May 2025. Landlords ending a tenancy must now use a lawful reason and provide supporting evidence rather than issue a termination without explanation.

The results provide the first broad look at how that system is operating and establish a benchmark against which future changes in the rental market can be measured.

Sales and owners moving in dominate landlord terminations

The headline figure that renters ended approximately 85 per cent of surveyed leases needs to be distinguished from the reasons recorded when a landlord initiated the termination.

Among that smaller landlord-ended group, 28 per cent involved an owner or family member moving into the property. A proposed property sale accounted for 20 per cent, while an actual sale accounted for another 14 per cent.

Together, those three reasons represented 62 per cent of landlord-initiated endings.

The figures indicate that decisions to sell or occupy a property are much more common reasons for landlord action than the overall number of bond refunds might initially suggest. However, they do not mean 62 per cent of all NSW tenancies ended because of a sale or owner move-in; the percentages apply only to leases ended by landlords.

That distinction matters for renters assessing their risk. Most moves recorded by the survey were renter-initiated, but a household can still face significant disruption when an owner decides to sell or return to the home.

Reasons can now be checked against market activity

NSW Fair Trading’s Rental Taskforce is using data matching to compare a landlord’s stated termination reason with subsequent rental listings and bond lodgements.

This is designed to identify properties that return to the rental market earlier than permitted. Depending on the reason used to terminate a lease, an exclusion period can prevent the landlord from re-letting the property for between four weeks and 12 months.

For example, a stated plan to sell or move into a home should be reflected in what happens to that property afterwards. A new rental advertisement or bond lodged during an exclusion period may indicate that the stated reason was not genuine and warrant closer examination.

The government said that before the reforms an estimated 45 per cent of leases ended without a reason being supplied. Mandatory reporting should make it easier to identify patterns, including whether particular grounds become unusually common or whether exclusion periods are being observed.

What renters should keep

A termination notice should identify the ground being relied on and be accompanied by the evidence required for that ground. Renters should retain the notice, attachments and correspondence, even after moving and receiving their bond refund.

It can also be useful to keep a dated copy or screenshot if the property is subsequently advertised for rent. The survey itself does not determine whether an individual termination was lawful, but the broader enforcement system relies on matching stated reasons with later property activity.

Landlords and agents also need accurate records. Selecting a reason on a notice is not merely administrative: it can affect when the property may be offered again and what evidence must be available if Fair Trading reviews the case.

The first release cannot show long-term trends because there is no comparable mandatory dataset from before the reform. Its value will increase as further reporting periods reveal whether the share and mix of landlord terminations change with market conditions.

What it means for you

• Most surveyed NSW tenancies were ended by renters, not landlords.
• If a landlord ends a lease, the stated reason and supporting evidence should be kept with your records.
• Owners and agents should understand the re-letting exclusion period attached to each termination ground.
• Future survey releases should provide a clearer test of how the no-grounds eviction ban is working over time.